As 2023 draws near, there has been hustling and jostling among politicians on ethnic and sectional basis of who emerges the President of Nigeria. In the states, the same scenario is going on. At the national level, this analysis will begin with the north. The north since 1914, has refused to be balkanized for political reasons, which is to control the centre in Nigeria’s federalism. It has maintained the colonial boundaries, which co-opted some Yoruba speaking parts into the north; the Tiv, the Wukari, the Idoma, the Berom, etc, into the Hausa Fulani north. But over the years, in sharing the largesse in controlling the centre, the core north had neglected the Middle Belt. When it comes to support, they beckon on the Middle Belt. When it comes to power, they exclude them.
Over the years, the consciousness of the discrimination has gradually got to the crescendo to the extent that the Middle Belt is tilting towards the South. They have found out they share one thing in common with the Southern region of Nigeria, which is that all of them are the marginalized while the core north is the ‘marginalizer’.
What has broken the camel’s back is the inability of the present government to deal with insecurity with fairness. In all cases of Fulani and native Middle Belt clash, the government has always reacted in favour of the fulani. In the cases of Benue, Plateau and Niger states buttress this fact. The worst hit is southern Kaduna where they are neglected and left unprotected. These people never wanted Muhammadu Buhari as their President. They believe in the former President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 elections. They believe that a President from the core north will never be fair to them and that a southerner would protect their interest more than a core northerner. All these will play out in 2023. A Presidential candidate emerging from the south may get their support and that of the entire Middle Belt.
In the south west, the region is not pleased that in-spite of the efforts made by Bola Tinubu to make All Progressives Congress(APC) succeed, the core northerners have never appreciated it, rather efforts are being made to dismantle his political structure. The body language of core north is very clear. They do not want Tinubu. Why wouldn’t they want Tinubu, a Muslim, their benefactor? The reason is that the core north is looking for a southerner whom they can manipulate. It appears to them that Tinubu might be difficult to manipulate. So, they are thinking about dumping him for a candidate from Southeast or Southsouth if power is to shift.
What could be the reaction of the Southwest if Tinubu is dumped? The south west is used to politics of opposition over the years. They are not crazy being at the centre. They could volte face and support another political party to pay back the north. This means the loss of Southwest.
In the southeast, every attempt not to give them the presidential slot will make them reject a candidate of the core north and the candidate they support. The implication is that Middle belt, Southwest and Southeast might be lost, leaving south-south and core north. The south-south and the core north cannot produce the President.
Any political party that is witty should think towards this line by harvesting the Middle belt, the Southwest, the Southeast and a new president will emerge from the structure. These are regions that have grievances with the status quo.
