On 28 of September, 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) will kick start the political calendar of 2023. Many candidates have emerged in Rivers state for the governorship position. The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) has Siminialaye Fubara, an accountant as its flagbearer. In All Progressives Congress (APC), a businessman, Tonye Cole is gunning for the position while, Prince Ugo Beke of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), an economist, seasoned banker and investor has his eye for the plum position. In Social Democratic Party (SDP), Senator Magnus Ngei Abe, former lawmaker is using the platform of the party to intend to take over Brick House, the seat of Government. The Accord party has Dumo Lulu-Briggs, who is a bussinessman and serial contestant. Others include the serious and ludicrous.
The politics in the state is beginning to tilt ethnically. The Kalabaris want the governorship, which they feel has eluded them over the years. The area has three local government councils; Asari Toru, Akuku Toru and Degema LGAs.Unfortunately, no fewer than seven gubernatorial candidates of different political parties have emerged to the extend that people are asking did anybody swear ‘juju’ against them? This is because it will affect bloc votes for any of their sons. The Opobo people have Fubara whose advantage is that he is being backed by the incumbent governor, Barr. Nyesom Wike. The governor has helped him to buy the former APC spokesman, Chris Finebone, Sam Sam Jaja, APC top notcher and many more APC members from the area. Surprisingly, APC held a rally that attracted a large number of supporters in the ancient town of Opobo. This development is giving concern to political pundits of the capacity of Fubara to take over Opobo in 2023. Anybody grouping Opobo ethnically should also know that Bonny, their kiths and kins would also give him support. Unlike Bonny, the Andoni people who are neighbours to the Opobos may not support him because of their age-long feud.
In Ogoni axis, Senator Magnus Abe is squaring up with Dr. Lessi Gborogbosi of Action Peoples Party (APP). Ogoni has four local government areas; Khana, Gokana, Tai and Eleme. While, in Ikwerre, the prominent among them is Prince Ugo Beke, who is being challenged by Sam Agwor of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). But political analyst said Agwor is inconsequential. The Ikwerres have four local government areas; Emohua, Obio-Akpor, Ikwerre and Port Harcourt city. Don’t forget that the Ikwerres have affinity with Etche and Omuma LGAs, who were of the old Ikwerre/Etche LGA. In Okrika, you have Victor Fingesi of Action Democratic Party(ADP), who is another serial contestant.
In the political equation, the Ekpeyes, comprising Ahoada East and Ahoada West do not have a candidate. Even the Oyigbos and Ogbas don’t have candidates and so are swinging local government areas for grabs.
There is a development also where some of the known political parties are buying up small parties to increase their chances of winning.
If ethnic politics is anything to go by, the number of voters in LGAs in Ikwerre ethnic nationality are the highest in the state, which tends to favour Prince Ugo Beke of APGA.
The politics of the state can also be looked at from the angle of who has what to offer. A lot of people are disenchanted with Governor Wike’s approach to development, which emphasizes on capital projects without consideration for human capital development. They are unhappy that so many people are unemployed and the promises of employing five thousand people by Gov. Wike is a ruse without any prospect of materialising. Retired civil servants have not been paid their gratuity. Nobody is promoted, while, all empowerment programmes set up by his predecessor, including RSSDA have been abandoned to comatose. The money of the state is being controlled by the governor who sees himself as the Czar of PDP and spending Rivers money without recourse. Several people are disgusted with his approach of development centred on Obio-Akpor LGA. They feel that Fubara would continue in his way or he is more or less Wike’s third term.
There is the fear that Wike might be ditched by Rivers people and with the technological innovation of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), rigging the election might be difficult.
The Kalabaris have started faltering because of high number of candidates. The visible candidate there has the sword of Damocles hanging on his neck on the sale of Rivers assets by his master, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and himself,which the Rivers state government of the incumbent has prepared a prosecution fiat to truncate his ambition. His chances of becoming the governor appears slim.
For Magnus Abe, the APC has sworn over their dead body against his winning the election . Even Gov. Wike who has political sympathy for him has changed strategy and he is buying up his top notchers in SDP. This is making his chances slim.
The 2023 governorship election could produce surprises. A look at the political crystal ball indicate that Prince Ugo Beke could have brighter chances. His approach to development is building strong economy and prosperity, which is the approach favoured by many in Rivers state to deal with the hunger in the land, unemployment and human capital development. Ikwerre ethnic nationality is intact with only Ugo Beke being the visible if not sole candidate of Ikwerre people. There is the thinking that when the chips are down, the Ikwerres will come together to rally support for their son, which many in that ethnic group would be excited that another Ikwerre man has on his own emerged the winner.
The game now is for candidates to grab Ekpeye, Ogba and so on who incidentally have ethnic relationship with the Ikwerres and therefore this is a plus for Prince Beke.
As the political chess board heightens, we will bring to you more incisive analysis that will determine the road to Brick House.
