2023 is fast advancing. Politicians are engaging in political analysis and permutation of who becomes the President of Nigeria. Aspirants are everywhere particularly in geographical zones of the country, where it is believed that the gavel will fall on.
With what is happening, All Progressives Congress(APC) is getting bigger as a result of decampees from People’s Democratic Party(PDP). While, PDP is shrinking due to decampees leaving it.
Of importance in political analysis are geographical zones of the country. In Nigeria, geographical zones are units of national politics not even the states. All geographical zones are strategizing and re-strategizing their interest in 2023.
The South believes that power should return to them. This was manifest when Southern Governors met in Lagos and demanded that power should shift to the South. Earnestly speaking, this demand may have come from the way President Muhammadu Buhari has been holding power to serve the interest of the north. Appointments have been lopsided including development. More worrisome is the attitude of the President towards Miyetti Allah group and the Fulani herdsmen. He has refused to speak to them in the language they will understand. The Fulani herdsmen have taken advantage of that to oppress the Yorubas in their region with the law enforcement agents looking the other way. This has led to the call for secession.
In the South-East, the Igbo has expressed their marginalisation and are embittered about it which the likes of Nnamdi Kanu has exploited to push for secession. The present administration had made no effort to woo the Igbo that believe in one Nigeria rather they chose to lump all of them together as secessionists. This has worsened the situation in the South-East. If the present administration of President Buhari had been tactical, it would have taken steps to encourage South-Easterners who are supporters of one Nigeria rather he prefers to label all of them as IPOB. Not even his ministers are spared as dot in the circle.
In the South-South, there is high politics going on there. The South-South believes that the present situation of South-west and South-East agitations will serve their best interest. They are using it to communicate to the north of their unflinching support for one Nigeria, believing that the north will reciprocate by handing over power to them. This led to the visit of Ijaw National Congress(INC) to Mr. President. Even in the South-South, there is politics. The Ijaw wants to grab the Presidency again to the exclusion of others in the South-South. They are aware of the efforts being made by Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi to vie for the highest office. So, the Ijaw are putting a subtle threat that if not a President of their extraction, the stability of the country cannot be guaranteed.
In the north, there are political wrangling. The once monolithic north is cracking. The Middle Belt is beginning to tilt towards the south. The reason being that there is no difference between the south and middle belt in the political equation. The Middle Belt and the South feel that they are being treated as second class citizens, which is worsened by the activities of Fulani herdsmen who attack, pillage, maim and kill indigenes of their communities with no effort by the federal government to check the menace and give them a sense of belonging. Some of them are routing for a President from the south whom they believe would provide them security than a core northern muslim leader.
For the core north, their argument has been that power should be retained in the north, buttressing that the north still has four years more. This they said resulted from the death of late President Musa Yar’Adua, which shortchanged them a tenure of four years. Where the argument fails, the core north is shopping for a candidate from the south that will be their lackey. For no clear reasons, the north is hysterical about Chief Bola Tinubu. Maybe, they fear he may not be their surrogate. So, they want to apply a tactic of politics called use and dump and they are looking towards the South-South, South-East. In the South-East, the northerners who are shopping for a candidate from the zone are frustrated and disappointed because of the overwhelming support for Nnamdi Kanu and his separatist movement, which they believe no political leader in the South-East can reverse. The pendulum tends to swing again to the South-South. In the South-South, the core north is looking for a political leader whose influence can transverse the whole of South-South and South-East. That is why the choice of former President Goodluck Jonathan has cropped up again. It enjoys great support from them because Jonathan cannot have more than a tenure of four years which will compel power to come back to the north again. This is to strike a balance in the power rotation of the north and the south. Another group of northerners are angling for Chibuike Amaechi who they believe loves the north and helped President Buhari and APC to win 2015 general elections. They believe he is one of the ministers that is giving the present administration credit for good governance because of his exploits in the railway sector of the transport industry. They perceive that his chances could be brighter if his influence could transverse from South-South to South-East. And moreover, he enjoys the support of Mr. President.
Nigerians are keeping their hands crossed, watching for which zone blinks first by playing the joker in 2023. All geographical zones must be careful to play the 2023 politics as a mistake can engulf the country into flames. We are watching.
